Archive for July 17th, 2008
Meet George Jetson
Baseball is back in full swing tomorrow, and the Cubs (57-38) head to juicy Minute Maid Park (née Enron Field) to take on the Astros (44-51) for 3. For your convenience, here are the teams’ stats through the first half.
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG SB
CHC 95 3317 507 933 191 12 107 478 384 701 .281 .360 .443 53
HOU 95 3257 414 847 178 10 96 396 280 586 .260 .321 .409 84
G ERA W L SV GS GF IP H R ER HR BB SO
CHC 95 3.89 57 38 29 95 94 857.3 804 401 371 98 320 707
HOU 95 4.53 44 51 26 95 95 840.0 888 458 423 131 314 611
Well it seems like the Cubs are just… better. Here are the likely matchups:
- July 18th, Lilly (4.68 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs. Moehler (4.28, 1.39)
- July 19th, Zambrano (2.84, 1.23) vs. W. Rodriguez (3.48, 1.28)
- July 20th, Dempster (3.25, 1.18) vs. Backe (4.76, 1.56)
Hopefully Theodore Roosevelt Lilly can show us something on 8 days of rest, like some sweet curveballs.
Unfortunately, we won’t see Soriano back in this series as was once thought. He should be back before the end of July.
Random stats: good eyes
How poor are they who have not patience! What wound did ever heal but by degrees? –William Shakespeare, “Othello”
If you talk to certain Cub fans, or get a steady diet of Len and Bob, the conventional wisdom is that this year’s Fukudome-inspired Cubs are more patient. We take more pitches, get better pitches to hit, and get on base more. Let’s look at some data. Here are Cubs’ pitches per plate appearance over the last few years:
Player 2008 2007 2006
Fukudome 4.39 -- --
Edmonds 4.20 3.89 4.07
Fontenot 4.08 3.93 --
Ramirez 4.07 3.67 3.71
Lee 3.99 4.02 4.45
Soto 3.94 3.90 3.38
DeRosa 3.91 3.96 3.70
Theriot 3.73 3.53 3.65
Soriano 3.52 3.67 3.90
Ramirez, Theriot, Edmonds, and Fontenot all got noticeable bumps from ‘07 to ‘08. The rest stayed roughly the same, with Soriano falling off a bit. (Fukudome is currently third in #P/PA in MLB, behind Swisher and Dunn.) So, maybe there is some truth to the theory.
As far as overall team stats go, the Cubs are on pace for 655 walks this season and a .360 OBP (both 1st in the NL), versus 500 BB and .333 OBP in 2007 (15th and 9th), and 395 BB and .319 OBP in 2006 (both last).
A true mid-summer classic
FanGraphs
The All-Star game yesterday was long, but it was a hell of a lot of fun. You can often tell a great game (especially a game whose specific outcome isn’t all that important to you) by how often, and how dramatically, the pendulum of fate swung back and forth between the two teams. This game yesterday certainly fit that bill. I can’t even imagine how miniscule the odds of the AL not scoring during those first 5 extra innings were. They had the bases loaded with no outs once, a lead-off double and then a runner on third with one out once, a whole bunch of errors in their favor, etc., etc.
No game-changing contributions from Cubbie All-Stars, but some highlights. Aramis got on with a walk, Big Z struck out 1 and gave up 1 hit in 2 innings, Marmol struck out 2 in a hitless inning, and Dempster struck out the side.
It is a shame that the NL couldn’t quite survive the 15th. It seems like we would’ve seen some position player pitching, and even mass mayhem ensuing.
I guess our Cubs will have to overcome the road disadvantage, but hey, we’ve overcome things before, haven’t we?
One toke over the line-up
Chicago Tribune
I’ve always wondered about the Cubs’ line-up. We have a few “lead off” hitters: Soriano supposedly, Fukudome, Theriot. A few “clean up” guys: Ramirez, Lee, Soto, Edmonds (God forbid?). And a bunch of other good hitters to put somewhere. Just for fun, I ran some stats through the tool over at Baseball Musings (based on the work of Cyril Morong, Ken Arneson, and Ryan Armbrust).
The Cubs’ most used batting order this year: Soriano, Theriot, Lee, Ramirez, Fukudome, Soto, DeRosa, Johnson, and then the pitcher, yields about 5.295 runs/game (assuming the pitcher’s spot gets .222 OBP and SLG). The best order, using this year’s stats: Fukudome, Ramirez, Johnson, Soto, DeRosa, Soriano, Lee, pitcher, Theriot, yielding about 5.626 runs/game. Interestingly, all of the “best” line-ups put the pitcher in the 8 spot. One has to think that those .331 runs/game might’ve gotten an extra win in the first half.
What about until Soriano comes off the DL? Theriot, Fukudome, Lee, Ramirez, Soto, Edmonds, DeRosa, Fontenot, pitcher is the most common, and yields 5.575 runs/game. The best line-up: Fukudome, Ramirez, DeRosa, Edmonds, Lee, Soto, Fontenot, pitcher, Theriot, giving 5.816 runs/game. Again, these are based on this year’s stats, but hey, we all know how much Sweet Lou loves to play the hot hand. Have fun coming up with your own line-ups.
Do the (first half) splits
MLB
No one would argue that Kosuke Fukudome has been solid thus far this season, and certainly a fan-favorite after his first-pitch-of-the-season double and first-game ninth inning three-run homer (I know I bought his T-shirt). His stats (.279/.383/.408) are respectable, and his VORP is fifth-best among rookie position players.
However, dude has a problem on the road. In fact, his splits are almost unbelievable:
Split G PA R H 2B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip Home 46 192 39 56 11 5 23 29 36 .348 .450 .522 .972 .425 Away 44 194 20 35 6 2 13 26 34 .212 .316 .297 .613 .252
Yikes. Oddly, the difference seems to come almost completely down to Kosuke’s difference in home and road BAbip. I would be tempted to chalk this up to luck, but we’re dealing with quite a few PAs here. At first, I thought maybe it had something to do with his performance during day games at Wrigley, but this doesn’t seem to be the case. Kosuke OPS’s .799 under the sun and .783 under the lights. A difference, for sure, but not the whole story.
Any thoughts as to the discrepancy? If Kosuke starts to get comfy in those hotels, and a few hits drop our way, we may begin to improve on that less-than-stellar 20-26 road record.
