Homers in the Gloaming

AP Photo/Darren Hauck

Box score.  It’s official… Alfonso is back.  A double in the first, and a home run in the third, and a stolen base.  The Cubs win something of a wild one in Milwaukee, and are now two up on the Brewers, and four on the Cardinals.

Lilly was solid through 5, but then looked all too Lilly-esque in the 6th, giving up back-to-back homers to Hardy and Braun, and then a double to Hart, surrendering the lead.

Luckily, the Cubs managed to retake the lead on a Weeks throwing error in the 7th, and scored again on a Lee double and DeRosa infield single in the 9th.

The Cubs have three more remaining in this important series with the Brewers.  Tomorrow’s game is again at 7:05 CT, on WGN.

The Cubs have 57 games remaining in the regular season.  Ten of those are against 2nd-place Milwaukee, and four of those start today at Miller Park.  This is without question the most important series thus far for the Cubs.

Here’s a look at the matchups:

• Mon. July 28, Lilly (4.49 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs. Sabathia (3.30, 1.15)
• Tues. July 29, Zambrano (2.96, 1.24) vs. Sheets (2.87, 1.13)
• Wed. July 30, Dempster (2.99, 1.17) vs. Parra (3.72, 1.48)
• Thu. July 31, Harden (2.10, 1.10) vs. Bush (4.51, 1.18)

And here are the teams’ stat lines this season:

    G   AB    R    H   2B 3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO    BA    OBP   SLG  SB  CS  GDP
CHC 105 3660  549 1016 213 13 120  520 413  779  .278  .355  .441  55  25  83
MIL 105 3595  494  919 218 20 137  476 342  766  .256  .326  .442  73  25  59

    G    ERA   W   L  SV  GS  GF   IP    H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO   HBP
CHC 105  3.86  61  44 31 105 104 946.3  877  439  406 111  358  798  44
MIL 105  4.03  60  45 36 105  99 939.0  923  464  420 114  354  713  27

Monday on CSN, Tuesday and Thursday on WGN, and Wednesday is the ESPN game.

For fun, here are the fifteen best historical offensive seasons by Cubs players, as measured by a very simple version of Pete Palmer’s linear weights method.  The numbers are “batting runs,” measured in runs above average.  Ten runs above average corresponds to roughly one win above average added in a season.

For comparison, Geovany Soto is on pace for something like 14 runs above average this year, Derrek Lee for 16 or so, and Aramis Ramirez for something like 17.5.

By this metric, the best three seasons by any player were 136.5 for Bonds in ‘04, 135.9 for Bonds in ‘01, and 135.7 by Ruth in ‘21.  Sosa’s great ‘01 season is 22nd all-time.  It’s amazing that three of the top 15 seasons came in 1930.  That year’s Cubs averaged 6.5 runs per game.

One can also calculate runs above average for pitching and fielding, and I will post these soon.  Let’s get a whole bunch of runs above average tomorrow!

(As an aside, the figures for Hack Wilson, Hornsby, Cuyler, and English may deserve an asterisk, as caught stealing data is not available for their seasons.  Instead, steals are removed from their calculations.  Notably, Kiki Cuyler did have 37 successful steals in ‘30, so his figure is likely even higher.  Gabby Hartnett of homer in the gloamin’ fame was also on those ‘30 Cubs.)